Following a tumultuous year of relentless challenges that ranged from severe load-shedding, rising interest rates, escalating fuel costs and geopolitical tensions, is there any cause for optimism in 2024, especially as South Africa heads into an election year?
This was the question put to a panel of experts from economics, industry, politics, and business at the GIBS Foresight 2024 Forum, hosted by Prof. Adrian Saville.
CEO of Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA) Busisiwe Mavuso said the current economic environment was of concern: “If we are failing at the basics as a country, what exactly is the business case for investing in South Africa?” she asked.
Economic outlook
CITI’s head of CEEMEA economics Gina Schoeman said while the global economic environment is always uncertain, 2024 is likely to see broader trends. These include climate change and supply-side shifts as a result of deglobalisation, that will impact the global economy. “A small, open economy like South Africa will not be able to go unscathed.”
Group senior executive of strategic trade at Aspen Pharma Group Stavros Nicolaou said South Africa has had 15 years of self-inflicted pedestrian growth.
“I’ve never known a pessimist to solve a problem, so we have to be realistic optimists,” he said. Nicolaou said he expects the energy crisis to “largely be thing of the past by the end of 2024” as renewables come online.
African prospects
CEO of DHL Express for sub-Saharan Africa Hennie Heymans said there are green shoots for Africa, especially in the agricultural sector, going into 2024. “Africa is resilient. We are used to shocks and we plan for them.”
The massive SME base in Africa is an opportunity for economic growth on the continent, he explained: “We have to uplift and enable Africa to trade its way to prosperity.”
